ICES advice 2018

ICES advice on fishing opportunities

ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2019 should be no more than 142 240 tonnes.

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Stock development over time

The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has increased substantially since 2006 and is well above historical estimates. Fishing mortality (F) has decreased markedly after 2005 and has been below FMSY since 2012. The two most recent recruitment (R) estimates are above the average of the time-series.

Figure 1 .Summary of the stock assessment of hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Complete discard estimates are available only since 2003. Recruitment and SSB plots show 95% confidence intervals (shaded area). Assumed recruitment values are unshaded.

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Summary of the assessment

Assessment summary for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Weights are in tonnes. Highs and lows are 95% confidence intervals
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Stock and explotation status

Table 1 State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

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Catch scenarios

Table 2 Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes.

Variable	Value	Source
F(2018)	0.23	Mean F2015–2017
R (2018 - 2019)	303550.00	GM 1990–2015 (in thousands)
SSB (2019)	346616.00
Total catch (2018)	103238.00	Forecast catch from the assessment model (based on F2018 = mean F2015 – 2017) plus additional discards*
Unwanted** catch (2018)	8426.00	Based on average discards rate during 2015–2017
Wanted** catch (2018)	94812.00	Based on average landings rate during 2015–2017

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* Additional discards are the discards that were not included in the assessment, amounting to approximately 2.8% of the total catch.

** “Wanted” and “unwanted” catch are used to describe fish that would be landed and discarded in the absence of the EU landing obligation.

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Table 3 Annual catch scenarios for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes. Note: The % change in TAC is not computed because the stock area does not correspond to the area for the TAC.
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The catch for 2019 corresponding to the MSY framework is 23% higher than the advice given for 2018. The increase is mainly a consequence of the increase in SSB in 2019 as a result of strong incoming year classes.

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Basis of the advice

Table 4 The basis of the advice for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

Advice basis	MSY approach.
Management plan	The current recovery plan (EU, 2004) is based on precautionary reference points that are no longer appropriate. ICES has not evaluated this plan. The European Commission has proposed a multiannual management plan (MAP) for the Western Waters, which is not yet finalized (EU, 2018).

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Quality of the assessment

The model confidence intervals underestimate uncertainty as they are narrower than interannual changes in estimates between consecutive assessments.

The historical FR-EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4 survey was revised and produced some minor changes in the perception of the stock. The FR-EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4 index value for 2017 was not available. However, the IE-IGFS-WIBTS-Q4 survey and the discards also provide information on recruitment. Both indices are consistent in the historical period, hence the recruitment estimate from last year is considered reliable.

Not all discards are included in the analytical assessment, but they are included in the final advice catch estimates. They represent approximately 2%–5% of the total stock catches. Discards have decreased substantially this year.

Given the expansion of the stock into northern areas (ICES, 2017a), biological sampling and discard quantification may be limited.

Owing to a lack of French market sampling of length in Q1 and Q2 of 2017 (biological and onboard sampling was unaffected), for some sampling strata length data were supplemented using data from previous years, which is considered to have limited impact (ICES, 2018).

There has been a tendency for the assessment to underestimate SSB and overestimate F in past years. However, estimates of SSB in the current assessment are close to those estimated in 2017.

Figure 2 Historical assessment results for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

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Issues relevant for the advice

Discarding of juvenile hake (undersized and above minimum size) can be substantial in some areas and fleets. In the most recent period, discarding of large individuals increased because of quota restrictions in certain fleets. In 2017, observed discards decreased.

Some fleets fishing this stock have been under the EU landing obligation since 2016.

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Reference Points

Table 5 Reference points, values, and their technical basis for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.
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Basis of the assessment

Table 6 Basis of the assessment and advice for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock.

ICES stock data category	1 (ICES, 2016c).
Assessment type	Length-based model (SS3; ICES, 2018) that uses landings and some discards. Additional discards are then included to calculate a catch forecast
Input data	Commercial landings; four survey indices (FR-EVHOE-WIBTS-Q4, SP-PORC-WIBTS-Q3, IE-IGFS-WIBTS-Q4, and RESSGASC); maturity data: constant maturity (Martin, 1991); natural mortality: constant value of 0.4.
Discards and bycatch	Data series from most fleets are available; 75% of the observed discards are included in the assessment (ICES, 2017b, 2018). The discards not included in the assessment are used to top-up the catch advice.
Indicators	None.
Other information	Last benchmarked in 2014 WKSOUTH (ICES, 2014).
Working group	Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE)

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Information from stakeholders

There is no information available

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History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 7 ICES advice and catch for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes.
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History of the catch and landings

Table 8 Catch distribution by fleet in 2017 as estimated by ICES for hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. All weights are in tonnes.

Catch	Landings	Discards
NA	7% unspecified gear | 34% longline | 24% gillnet | 35% trawl	NA
111770	104670	7100

Table 9 History of commercial catch and landings of hake in subareas 4, 6, and 7, and in divisions 3.a, 8.a–b, and 8.d, Northern stock. Both the official and ICES estimated values are presented by area for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.
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Sources and references

• EU. 2018. Proposal for a REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL establishing a multiannual plan for fish stocks in the Western Waters and adjacent waters, and for fisheries exploiting those stocks, amending Regulation (EU) 2016/1139 establishing a multiannual plan for the Baltic Sea, and repealing Regulations (EC) No 811/2004, (EC) No 2166/2005, (EC) No 388/2006, (EC) 509/2007 and (EC) 1300/2008. COM/2018/0149 final. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52018PC0149&from=EN
• EU. 2004. COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) No. 811/2004 of 21.4.2004 establishing measures for the recovery of the Northern hake stock. Official Journal of the European Union, L 150/1. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2004:150:0001:0011:EN:PDF.
• ICES. 2014. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Southern Megrim and Hake (WKSOUTH), 3–7 February 2014, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2014/ACOM:40. 236 pp.
• ICES. 2016a. EU request to ICES to provide FMSY ranges for selected stocks in ICES subareas 5 to 10. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 5, Section 5.4.1.
• ICES. 2016b. Report of the Workshop to consider FMSY ranges for stocks in ICES categories 1 and 2 in Western Waters (WKMSYREF4), 13–16 October 2015, Brest, France. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:58. 183 pp.
• ICES. 2016c. Advice basis. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section 1.2.
• ICES. 2017a. Report of the Working Group on Mixed-Fisheries Advice (WGMIXFISH-ADVICE), 22–26 May 2017, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:18. In preparation.
• ICES. 2017b. Report of the Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and Iberian waters Ecoregion (WGBIE). 4-11 May 2017. Cadiz, Spain. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:12. 534 pp.
• ICES. 2018. Report of the Working Group for the Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Waters Ecoregion (WGBIE), 3 –10 May 2018, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:12. 642 pp.
• Martin, I. 1991. A preliminary analysis of some biological aspects of hake (Merluccius merluccius L. 1758) in the Bay of Biscay. ICES CM 1991/G:54. 31 pp.